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Goldman Sachs Say Colombian Assets Should Rally

COLOMBIA
  • As expected, leftist candidate Gustavo Petro secured the most votes but did not win in the first round while right-wing independent candidate Rodolfo Hernández validated the momentum shown in recent polls and came in second place ahead of center-right candidate Federico Gutiérrez.
  • Notably, after the election, Federico Gutiérrez endorsed Rodolfo Hernández for the second round. Furthermore, second round simulations show a very close race between Mr. Petro and Mr. Hernández, with one poll favoring Hernández.
  • With 21.4 million votes counted, turnout exceeded 54% of registered voters, similar to the 2018 first round presidential election and well above the 40.65% in the 2014 first round election and also higher to 49.29% in 2010. In addition, blank votes (1.7%) and null votes (1.1%) were below the forecasts of most polls. Therefore, it seems unlikely that there could be a major shift in voting intention from the first to the second round, suggesting that Gutiérrez's support for Hernández could be key in shaping the June 19 runoff.
  • As a result, Colombian assets should rally as pre-election polls suggest Hernández will be a very strong contender in the runoff and Petro’s share of the valid vote in the first round was well below the 45% threshold that analysts saw as needed to give him a clear edge in the runoff. Hernández's performance in upcoming debates will be key to leverage his bid.
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