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Goldman Sachs Says BCB’s QIR Consistent With Continued Steady Rate Cuts

BRAZIL
  • Goldman Sachs note that the March quarterly inflation report did not bring much new information beyond that conveyed in the Copom minutes. The baseline scenario for inflation did not change and the BCB anticipates the need for restrictive monetary conditions until end 2026. The 20bp upgrade to the 2024 real GDP forecast to 1.9% was driven by higher government consumption and investment. The estimate for r* remained at 4.5%.
  • In their view, the QIR is consistent with the Copom continuing on a steady path of rate easing over the coming months and the maintenance of a restrictive stance throughout the forecasting horizon. GS believe that risks to the BCB’s inflation forecasts are still biased to the upside.
  • They continue to expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate by 50bp in May, with the incoming data and overall balance of risks for inflation after that determining whether the Copom continues at that pace in June or slows to a more cautious 25bp pace.
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