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Goldman Sachs See Scope for More Surprise Than Usual in February Inflation Reading

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Goldman Sachs estimate that headline inflation likely declined to +5.2% y/y in February from +5.3% y/y in January (BBG consensus: +5.5%), while core likely ticked up from +4.6% to +4.7%. Among non-core factors, they estimate that petrol inflation rose from +3.3% to +5.8%, offset by a decline in food inflation from +7.2% to +6.2%.
  • Within core inflation, on one hand base effects in core goods/services are very favourable and Goldman expect core imported durable goods inflation to fall further, but on the other hand they expect an uptick in medical aid inflation, from +6.9% y/y to +10.0% y/y.
  • Given uncertainty on how large the latter increase will be (as well as the distribution between the increase in February vs. April), however, Goldman Sachs say they have less confidence than usual in the inflation forecast and see more scope for surprises than in other months.
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