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Goldman Sachs See Upside Risk to Their 40% Year-End Policy Rate Forecast

TURKEY
  • Whereas Goldman Sachs previously viewed the CBRT’s rate decisions as largely independent of inflation developments, they now think the repo rate has become a more important instrument in targeting inflation, even though the Bank continues to utilise macroprudential measures to anchor its monetary policy stance.
  • They therefore expect the CBRT to deliver substantial rate hikes over the remainder of the year, reflecting high inflation momentum in the near term (driven both by strong cost pressures and possibly a change in the way CPI is measured/constructed).
  • They see upside risk to their terminal rate forecast of 40% as they expect inflation to reach +70.0% y/y by year-end. Additionally, Finance Minister Simsek recently stated a preference for the hiking cycle to end by year-end (which is in line with Goldman Sachs’ forecast) and said that rates need to be positive in real terms vs. 12m forward inflation.
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