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Goldman Sachs Still See 50BP BCCh Cut This Month

CHILE
  • Following this morning’s inflation data in Chile, Goldman Sachs maintain their view that the Central Bank is likely to deliver a consecutive 50bps cut at its December meeting.
  • According to Goldman Sachs, some of the higher prices observed in November (e.g., clothing and home appliances) likely reflected a rebound in prices after the Cyber sales in October. Other goods, however, also saw a pickup in inflation during the month and core-services inflation remained stickier.
  • Going forward, a stronger exchange rate and lower oil prices could be supportive of lower inflation prints.
  • Climate risks from El Niño, in turn, pose a risk to inflation. In addition, high nominal wage growth and sizeable minimum wage increases also pose a risk to the disinflationary process, particularly in the labour-intensive services sector where inflation has proven stickier, as higher labour costs are passed through to final consumer prices.
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