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Goldman Sachs view ahead of this week's MPC meeting

BOE
  • GS expects the ELB review to be published alongside the MPR but "acknowledge the distinct possibility that the Committee holds off until later this year." GS expects the ELB will now be lower but think that the "shift will be couched in qualitative terms ("now moderately negative," for example) rather than with more quantitative precision ("now -0.50%")."
  • In spite of this GS states that it does "not expect any urgency in the MPC's intention to actually cut into negative territory."
  • On QE pace, GS "expect the MPC to announce a £5bn per-week gilt purchase pace for the six-week period from 6 August to 17 September (Exhibit 3). Maintaining that £5bn pace through Q4 would take the BoE's stock of purchased assets to £745bn just before the December meeting." However, GS also notes that it "would not interpret a more aggressive taper as incompatible with more QE later this year."
  • "Over the next six months, the MPC is likely to place more weight on incoming news from the labour market than incoming news on the level of output…Our base case remains that the MPC will announce an extra £100bn of QE in November."
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