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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessGoldman Still See Strong Case For Yen Recovery Over Medium-Term
Goldman Sachs note that “the BoJ kept yield curve control (YCC) in place at its latest meeting despite intense upward pressure on global rates and market speculation about a possible policy change. We continue to see a strong case for JPY appreciation over the medium-term, resulting from either (i) a significant US economic slowdown/recession or (ii) a change in Japanese monetary policy. A scenario in which Japanese inflation remains uniquely low even as the economy reopens, allowing the BoJ to remain on hold while other central banks hike, seems a low probability outcome, in our view. Over the very near-term we would expect more depreciation pressure on the Yen (upward pressure on USD/JPY) due to the BoJ’s commitment to YCC. Investors should consider short-dated USD/JPY call spreads for this outcome; the possibility of intervention limits the chances of sharp increase in USD/JPY, in our view; the CHF/JPY cross may also have further upside but we are reluctant to chase at current levels. Beyond that we will look for opportunities in USD/JPY shorts. Given uncertainty around the near-term Fed outlook, it may be prudent to wait until the next U.S. employment report (July 8) before adding USD/JPY downside expressions.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.