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Goldman Ups Headline, Downgrades Core May Inflation

EUROZONE

Following the French/German/Italy inflation data, Goldman Sachs has pulled up its May eurozone headline inflation forecast to 6.11% Y/Y (was 6.04%) but lowered its core estimate to 5.43% Y/Y (was 5.48%) - though all pending the German national print later today. The Eurozone figure is out Thursday morning.

  • Their German HICP inflation estimate is 6.6% Y/Y. (For CPI, MNI is estimating 6.12%.)
  • On core: While French core inflation was on the weak side, they see the sequential German core inflation softness as due to the impact of the 49 euro transport ticket (pointing out passenger transport dropped 31.1% M/M in North Rhine Westphalia). And Italy's core inflation increased "meaningfully".

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