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Goods And Services PPI Diverge; Y/Y Core Prices Continue To Soften

US

Of note from the softer-than-expected PPI print for October (including revisions to prior), a divergence in headline goods and services prices in October - but core (ex-foods, energy, trade) continues to soften on an annual basis:

  • Final demand goods prices rose 0.6%, the largest rise since +2.2% in June - but that's mostly due to a jump in energy prices (+2.7%).
  • Conversely, final demand services prices fell 0.1% M/M, the first fall since Nov 2020, led by a drop in margins for trade services (which measures changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers).
  • Overall ex-foods, energy, trade continues to soften Y/Y - peaking at 7.1% in March, now 5.4%, the lowest since April 2021 (see chart).
  • That will continue to fuel the lower goods price narrative ( as highlighted in October's CPI report which showed a sharp M/M core goods deflation). But there is still a long way to go to get to pre-pandemic norms below 3%.

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