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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Political betting markets have the Republicans as favourites to win the two closest 'tossup' Senate races in today's midterm elections. In Democrat-held Georgia, bettors assign a 67.1% implied probability that Republican candidate Herschel Walker wins the seat, compared to 41.0% for incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (total sums to more than 100% due to bookmaker's profit).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Georgia Senate Race, %
Source: Smarkets
- In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt is assigned a 64.5% implied probability of winning by political bettors, with incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto on 38.2%.
Chart 2. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Nevada Senate Race,
Source: Smarkets
- The closest race according to betting markets is in Arizona, where incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly is assigned a 54.4% implied probability of winning, compared to 45.1% for Republican challenger Blake Masters. Political polling aggregator 270towin.com has Arizona in the 'leaning Democrat' category.
Chart 3. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Arizona Senate Race,
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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