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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Data from Smarkets shows the Republicans as favourites to take control of the Senate in the 8 November midterm elections among political betting markets. This is the first time the GOP have stood as favourites over the Democrats since early August.
- At the time of writing, the Republicans are given a 53.8% implied probability of gaining control of the Senate, with the Democrats afforded a 47.2% chance of retaining control (sum adds to more than 100% due to bookmaker's margin).
- The betting markets shifting towards the Republicans stands in contrast to some political pollsters and forecasters. Nate Silver's 538.com's forecasting model has the Democrats with an implied probability of 63% of retaining the Senate, compared to 37% for the GOP taking control of the chamber.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Which Party Will Control US Senate After Midterms, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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