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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Political betting markets continue to show a heavy implied probability that the Republicans take control of both the Senate and House of Representatives in the 8 November midterm elections. Data from Smarkets assigns a 64.9% implied probability that the GOP wins a majority in both chambers, with a Republican House-Democratic Senate scenario the second most likely outcome according to bettors with a 27.8% implied probability.
- The 'tail risk' scenario of the Democrats retaining control of both chambers has an implied probability of 8.3%, an outcome assessed in the MNI Market team's 2022 Midterm Asset Implication article, which can be found here:
Midterms2022AssetImplications.pdf
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probabilities of Midterm Election Outcomes, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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