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Gov't May Look For 2nd '24 Fiscal Event Given Poor Voter Response To Budget

UK

A headline-grabbing opinion poll released by People Polling on 8 March could set a fire under the idea of the gov't looking to deliver a second 'fiscal event' in 2024 ahead of any general election in an effort to turn around the centre-right Conservative party's low support. People Polling: Labour: 46% (+1), Conservative: 18% (-2), ReformUK: 13% (+1), Liberal Democrats: 10% (=), Green: 7% (-2), Fieldwork 7 March, chgs w/25 Jan.

  • It should be noted that this poll is an outlier, with the March average showing the Conservatives on 23.8%. Secondly, over the past year People Polling has consistently given the Conservatives its lowest support level out of any pollster in the British Polling Council.
  • Should the election reflect these numbers, the Electoral Calculus' predictor model (usually inaccurate by around 50 seats) shows the following outcome (out of 650): Labour 537 (+340), Liberal Democrats 48 (+40), Conservatives 24 (-352), SNP 18 (-30), Plaid Cymru 3 (+1), Green 2 (+1), Northern Ireland parties 18 (=), Reform UK 0 (=).
  • While polling in itself is not market-moving, the impact of polling such as this could spur market-moving events. The date of the next election is not set, but in our view a vote in late-2024 or even Jan 2025 is more likely than May. The Budget was billed as the last major 'fiscal event' pre-election, but if polling does not turn around the gov't could look to an autumn statement in a final effort to boost support, with a new set of fiscal measures for markets to assess.
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