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Government Bond Flows in 2021

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Rising inflationary pressures in Poland have led to a significant outflows of Poland gvt bond since the start of the year (FX external bonds). As a reminder, the CEE region currently offers the lowest 10Y real yields among the EM world with Poland at the bottom of the 'League' with -2.5%.
  • On the other hand, momentum on the ZAR, CLP and MYR have led to significant inflows in gvt bonds (1.5 to 2% of the country's GDP).
  • We will see if flows to Malaysia gvt bonds will continue with the recent surge in inflation; CPI inflation rose from 0.1% to 4.7% between February and April this year, implying that Malaysia currently offers a negative 10Y yield of -1.5%.
  • This chart (source: IIF) shows the flows to EM government bonds since the start of the year.

Source: IIF

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