Free Trial

Government/Central Bank Tensions Remain In Focus

BRAZIL
  • The BCB reaffirmed its commitment to conduct monetary policy to achieve targets set by the National Monetary Council, according to minutes of the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 rate-setting meeting. Further details were provided on the committee’s concerns over the deterioration of longer term inflation expectations.
    • All in keeping with the statement’s key passage that potentially signals high rates for longer: "The Committee remains vigilant, assessing if the strategy of maintaining the Selic rate for a longer period than in the reference scenario will be enough to ensure the convergence of inflation."
    • Interestingly, following headlines that the President’s team were dismayed by the harsh Copom rhetoric, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad told journalists in Brasilia Monday evening that the statement could have been “a little more generous” with the measures we have already taken”.
  • Following the broad pressure on regional currencies and the sharp rejection after piercing the 5.00 handle last week, USDBRL stabilised on Monday and closed around 5.15. Focus remains on Thursday’s January IPCA inflation data with December retail sales also on the docket.
    • Brazil’s second-tier inflation index IGP-DI slowed more than expected to 0.06% in January; est. 0.28%, prior 0.31%.
  • Treasury auctions Selic-linked LFT notes due 2026 and 2029; inflation-linked NTN-B local notes due 2028, 2040 and 2060.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.