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BNP expect 15bp December hike

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BNP continue to expect a 15bp November hike

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  • Germany charged Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of using migrants as a "political weapon" to retaliate against European Union sanctions, according to Interior Minister Horst Seehofer (BBG).
  • As Covid cases continue to surge, Health Minister Adam Niedzielski said at a press conference yesterday that the government may take drastic steps in case the situation continues to deteriorate.
  • The on-going dispute with the EU bloc continues with Poland threatening to block EU climate talks (2-day gathering) unless it receives access to the 36bn EUR from the 'recovery fund'. As a reminder, EU officials have decided to delay the access to the post-pandemic aid over their backsliding on rule of law.
  • Inflationary pressures continue to remain elevated in the CEE region, increasing the odds for another hike by the NBP next month (November 3).
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that PPI inflation continued to surprise positively in September, up 10.2% YoY (vs. 10% exp.), and up from revised 9.6% the previous month.
  • Forward rates are pricing in further rates hikes in the coming meetings. FRA 3Mx6M is currently trading 85bps above the Wibor 3M, implying that the market is expecting three to four 25bps hikes by January.
  • This morning, September retail sales came in slightly higher than expected at 11.1% YoY (vs. 10.4%), up from 10.7% the previous month.
  • At 1pm, the NBP will publish the minutes of its policy meeting held on October 6.