SWEDEN
The Swedish seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment rate was three tenths below consensus expectations at 8.2% in May. However, monthly LFS readings are often volatile (the unemployment rate was 8.1% in Feb, 8.6% in Mar and 8.5% in Apr), meaning one should not place too much weight on individual readings.
- Looking at trends on a 3-month basis, the data is consistent with the notion that the labour market continues to gradually soften, but this will not stop the Riksbank from holding rates steady at next week’s meeting.
- The 3mma of the unemployment rate instead rose a touch to 8.43% (vs 8.40% prior), its highest since November 2021.
- On a 3mma basis, the employment rate fell to 69.0% (vs 69.2% prior), but continues to trend above the Riksbank’s March MPR forecasts.
- The fall in the unemployment rate was not a function of rising labour force activity: The 3mma inactivity rate rose to 24.7% (vs 24.5% prior) while the participation rate was 75.3% (vs 75.5% prior).
- The press release notes that “the labour market remains subdued, for example, temporary employment continues to decrease”.
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