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FRANCE: Gov't To Survive 5 Feb Votes; Censure Motion Next Week Greater Threat

FRANCE
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The gov't of PM Francois Bayrou will face two censure motions in the National Assembly from 1530CET (0930ET, 1430GMT) on Wednesday 5 Feb following its use of Art. 49.3 of the Constitution to push through its 2025 state budget (PLF) without a vote. The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) has said that it will not vote against the gov't on these measures in order to ensure a budget is passed while Jordan Bardella - leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) - has indicated that his party is unlikely to back censure. With PS support and RN abstention, this will avoid Bayrou's gov'ts ouster on 5 Feb. 

  • The greater threat could come next week, when the PS has said it will put forward a censure motion under Art. 49.2 of the constitution. This would be in relation to Bayrou's comments in January that talked of a 'flood' of immigration. The PS and other parties of the left have demanded the PM walk the comments back.
  • It may be expected that the RN would not back such a motion given that it is criticising anti-immigration rhetoric. However, the RN has proved in the past that it is not the content of the motion that it votes for, but the end result. Indeed, in Dec 2024 the party voted for the ouster of the Barnier gov't on a motion that contained wording directly critical of the far-right. As such, while still unlikely the prospect of a successful censure vote next week cannot be ruled out. 
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The gov't of PM Francois Bayrou will face two censure motions in the National Assembly from 1530CET (0930ET, 1430GMT) on Wednesday 5 Feb following its use of Art. 49.3 of the Constitution to push through its 2025 state budget (PLF) without a vote. The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) has said that it will not vote against the gov't on these measures in order to ensure a budget is passed while Jordan Bardella - leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) - has indicated that his party is unlikely to back censure. With PS support and RN abstention, this will avoid Bayrou's gov'ts ouster on 5 Feb. 

  • The greater threat could come next week, when the PS has said it will put forward a censure motion under Art. 49.2 of the constitution. This would be in relation to Bayrou's comments in January that talked of a 'flood' of immigration. The PS and other parties of the left have demanded the PM walk the comments back.
  • It may be expected that the RN would not back such a motion given that it is criticising anti-immigration rhetoric. However, the RN has proved in the past that it is not the content of the motion that it votes for, but the end result. Indeed, in Dec 2024 the party voted for the ouster of the Barnier gov't on a motion that contained wording directly critical of the far-right. As such, while still unlikely the prospect of a successful censure vote next week cannot be ruled out.