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Gravitating back to 1.08

AUDNZD
  • AUDNZD has firmed in early European trading, moving back marginally above the 1.08 level at the time of writing.
  • The RBA minutes overnight which showed that the RBA discussed both a 25bp hike and a pause but did not include the language that the decision was "finely balanced" indicating that although the RBA remains very data dependent that the hiking cycle may not be over yet (see more here). Markets now fully price a single 25bp hike by the end of the year (at 26bp, down from around 30bp at yesterday's close but up from the sub-24bp lows seen in the Asian session). There wasn't a huge move in AUDUSD following the release of the minutes.
  • Overnight tonight we will receive New Zealand CPI which analysts expect to come in below the RBNZ's expectations - with the bar high to see a meaningful NZD rally (full preview here).
  • Bulls first look to break the high from 12 July of 1.0832, from here they can target the high from May 29 at 1.0924.
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