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Greenback Extends Recovery, AUDUSD Sinks Post-RBA

FOREX
  • The greenback extended on its most recent recovery on Tuesday, shrugging off the weaker-than-expected US JOLTS data. Further weakness for the Euro amid some dovish ECB speak underpinned the 0.4% rally for the USD index.
  • With the greenback bid extending in late US trade, EURUSD slid back below 1.0800 for the first time since US inflation data was released on November 14. With the EURUSD trend outlook remaining bullish for now, recent weakness appears to be a correction. Note that the trend condition is overbought, and the move lower is allowing this set-up to unwind. Support to watch is 1.0770, the 50-day EMA and 1.0756, the Nov 6 high.
  • The Australian dollar is the weakest performer in the G-10 space. AUD/USD was pressured in early APAC trade as regional equities ticked lower before extending losses as the RBA held rates steady and noted that inflation is continuing to moderate. AUD/USD is down 1.00% heading into the Wednesday crossover and price has narrowed in on initial support at the 20-Day EMA (0.6539), before pivot support at 0.6522.
  • There was some volatile price action around the US data, most notable in USDJPY which saw a quick blip lower of around 65 pips to 146.57 lows. However, this proved to be short-lived and the pair had an impressive bounce to eventually trade at a fresh session high of 147.39. On the topside, yesterday’s highs at 147.45 represent a short-term target, however, more notable key short-term resistance does not come in to play until 148.51, the Nov 30 high.
  • Australian GDP will cross overnight before the UK construction PMI and potential comments from Governor Bailey. US ADP employment will play second fiddle to the Bank of Canada rate decision. Remarks from Gov. Macklem two weeks ago could heavily dictate the message we receive from the single page statement, including that excess demand is now gone and policy may now be restrictive enough.

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