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Greenback Regains Poise As Equities Fade From Highs

FOREX
  • The US dollar had initially been trading on the weaker side approaching the London WMR fix, as equities extended gains from their Wednesday trough. However, ongoing tensions surrounding the Russia/Ukraine situation along with firm rhetoric from the US has weighed on equity indices in the latter half of the US session.
  • In turn the US dollar has strengthened and the USD Index has risen to fresh session highs, up 0.2% for Thursday, looking set to erode yesterday’s retreat.
  • While the likes of AUD and CAD have pared some gains, they still remain the strongest across G10 currencies, rising just shy of 0.5%. USDCAD continues to hover near recent trend lows as we approach a very live BoC meeting next week. A move through 1.2448 support, 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally, would open 1.2387, the Nov 10 low.
  • EURUSD had been consolidating for the majority of the session around 1.1350, however, eventually succumbed to the greenback strength, making new lows for the week as of writing below 1.1315.
  • This week’s price action threatens the recent bullish theme and suggests that at this stage, last week’s range and bear channel breakout appears to have been a false one and has failed to deliver a bullish reversal. Next level in focus remains 1.1272, Jan 4 low.
  • Worth noting EURGBP made another session low and is eyeing a test of immediate support at 0.8300. Below this level opens up the potential for a test of significant support - 2019/2020 double bottom 0.828222/0.82769. A close below 0.83 would be the lowest daily close since 2016, with many also referencing the significance of a close above 1.20 in GBP/EUR.
  • Geopolitical focus undoubtedly on Blinken/Lavrov in Geneva tomorrow with the potential press conference starting around 1300 CET.
  • BoJ minutes are scheduled overnight before UK retail sales kick off the European session on Friday. ECB’s LaGarde participating in further panel discussions at the WEF, before Canadian retail sales close out the data for the week.
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