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Greenback Weakness Following US Data Aids Recovery in Rand

ZAR
Greenback weakness following the US data has seen USDZAR extend its pullback from yesterday’s high. The pair is down 0.5% at typing, though this week’s lows remain ~1% below current spot around 18.80. The more favourable risk backdrop – evidenced by lower US yields and an uptick in the major equity indices – has been providing a tailwind to EM FX for the past two sessions, but the MSCI EM FX index has failed to recover to pre-US CPI levels.
  • Firmer gold prices today may be further assisting the rand, although we do note that the most recent breach of $2001.9, the Jan 17 low, highlights a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 28, which may limit the short-term upside for the yellow metal.
  • For USDZAR, the recent sell-off appears to have been a correction with the recovery since Feb 2 instead a positive development. Initial support to watch is at 18.5385, the Jan 12 low, a break of which would be a bearish development. For bulls, sights are on 19.2180, the Jan 22 high.
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