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Greene could add to a majority for a June cut - but is unlikely to be the marginal voter

BOE
  • A few more thoughts reflecting on Greene: She did sound a lot less hawkish than previously.
  • Will she vote for a cut in June? She didn't rule it out, so possibly.- Is she likely to be the marginal member in a close vote? Probably not - we would still see her as less dovish than Bailey, Broadbent and Breeden (and probably closer to Pill's view).
  • So it probably makes a 6-3 or 7-2 vote in favour of a cut in June more likely. But it doesn't make a cut itself more likely as the other members will probably be more inclined to vote for a cut than she does.
  • We will hear from Mann on Friday - who had previously sounded less hawkish than Greene (but Mann's last speech wasn't less hawkish than Greene's today).
  • Possibly more market moving than both today's Greene speech and Friday's Mann speech could be Broadbent's appearance next week as he speaks at the "new evidence on the monetary transmission mechanism workshop".
  • In terms of market pricing, there is a slightly higher probability of a June cut (around 1bp more than pre-Greene pricing) with around 3bp more priced for the year.

BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)SONIA BoE-Dated OIS Pre-Greene (%)Change
Jun-245.0605.069-0.009
Aug-244.9294.940-0.011
Sep-244.8204.841-0.021
Nov-244.6864.712-0.026
Dec-244.5874.616-0.029
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