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Greene doesn't sound as though she is close to voting for a cut soon

BOE
  • At first glance there's no mention of this week's data in the speech. There will be a 20 min fireside chat, then 20 min Q&A from the audience after. She doesn't sound like she will switch to voting for a cut soon, saying "I think policy will need to remain restrictive for some time in order for inflation to sustainably return to target... I would need to see further evidence that inflation persistence is less embedded than previously feared before I would consider voting to loosen policy."
  • Highlights of the speech below:
  • "While I believe inflation persistence is a greater threat in the UK than the US, we have learned a bit about the former in recent months—enough to shift my vote in favour of maintaining Bank Rate at 5.25% in the most recent interest rate decision."
  • "Given recent developments in demand and inflation, it’s clear that monetary policy is restrictive in the UK. But in light of the persistence of UK wage and services price pressures, which stand out in international comparisons, I think policy will need to remain restrictive for some time in order for inflation to sustainably return to target. Recent signs of persistence starting to ease are encouraging, and I judge that current policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to target in the medium-term. I would need to see further evidence that inflation persistence is less embedded than previously feared before I would consider voting to loosen policy."
  • "The overall downside news in UK wage growth over the past few months has been significant. ONS estimates of pay growth came in much weaker than we’d expected in November. The gap between AWE private sector regular pay and other metrics – which I had viewed as a potential upside risk – has now narrowed significantly. Still, our Agents’ survey points to growth in pay settlements of 5.4% this year, higher than the MPC’s most recent forecast for wage growth and representing an upside risk."
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