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Greene still seems to lean towards hiking but risks "more finely balanced"

BOE

The conclusions of Greene's speech seems to still point towards her voting for further hikes due to her concerns on inflation persistence. But she does acknowledge that activity has weakened and the risks have become "more finely balanced."

  • Greene's speech is entitled: "Are we there yet? A journey into monetary policy and medium-term factors"
    "In order to return inflation sustainably to the target, the MPC must balance the risk of doing too little with that of doing too much. These risks are more finely balanced since earlier this summer in part as activity has weakened. But the data on output remains mixed, and I continue to worry more about inflation persistence."
  • Some intersting stuff on r* and u*: "These risks should be considered in the context of the medium-term outlook, which is contingent on u* and r*. We must have humility when it comes to estimating these variables, but multiple methodological approaches suggest they have risen recently. u* may have been pushed up by lower matching efficiency and higher real wage rigidity. Higher u* suggests the labour market could remain tight even as unemployment rises. r* may have drifted upwards thanks to higher government debt and a modest uptick in investment. For a given level of interest rates, this would indicate policy is less restrictive than we’d thought. These shifts in the star variables suggest policy may have to be restrictive for an extended period of time in order return inflation to 2% over the medium-term."

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