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Growing Gap Between Market And Analysts For March BOC

CANADA
  • Market pricing for next week’s BOC decision has lurched higher, further exceeding the gap with analysts.
  • OIS prices between 42-45bp of hikes for Mar 2 whereas the 21 analysts on Bloomberg unanimously expect a 25bp hike to 0.5%.
  • This includes two recent call changes from GS and JPM to the more hawkish end of the spectrum, who each see 6x25bp consecutive hikes out to and including Oct before a further 4 hikes in 2023, but still expect the BOC to shy away from 50bp liftoff.
  • Prior to the BOC’s hawkish hold in Jan, analysts had on balance called for no change vs the 65-70% pricing in of liftoff.
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