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Growth Rate Closer To 2%-2.5%

CHINA
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Executive Summary:

  • China alternative measures of GDP growth have been pricing in a significantly lower level of economic activity, therefore confirming that the current official’s growth target rate of 5.5% is ‘unrealistic’.
  • According to think tank CASS measure, the current level of GDP growth is closer to 2%-2.5% (rather than the 4.8% reported in Q1).
  • CNY remains vulnerable in the medium term as the CH-US bond yield premium keeps falling into deeper negative territory.

Link to full publication:

China Growth - F.pdf

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Executive Summary:

  • China alternative measures of GDP growth have been pricing in a significantly lower level of economic activity, therefore confirming that the current official’s growth target rate of 5.5% is ‘unrealistic’.
  • According to think tank CASS measure, the current level of GDP growth is closer to 2%-2.5% (rather than the 4.8% reported in Q1).
  • CNY remains vulnerable in the medium term as the CH-US bond yield premium keeps falling into deeper negative territory.

Link to full publication:

China Growth - F.pdf

Keep reading...Show less