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GS Above Consensus For Core CPI With Larger Start-Of Year Price Hikes

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman Sachs forecast core CPI at 0.38% M/M, translating to a “roughly stable” 3.9% Y/Y.
  • “Our core forecast reflects a 0.1-0.15% temporary boost from above-normal start-of-year price increases, including for prescription drugs, car insurance, tobacco, and medical services. We also expect a 0.7% rebound in apparel prices as outsized holiday promotions reverse.”
  • “On the negative side, we expect a 2% pullback in airfares and a 1.3% drop in used car prices. We are forecasting +0.40% for both rent and OER.
  • Headline CPI seen at 0.20% M/M, with the year-ago rate declining to 3.03% Y/Y.
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