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China Should Act Early To Avoid Balance Sheet Recession

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GS Below Consensus For Payrolls, Potential AHE Upside

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman forecast a 200k (cons 260k) increase in NFP in September, from August’s 315k “ reflecting the loss of the summer youth labor force”.
  • Big Data indicators were mixed in the month, but jobless claims remain low and the level of labor demand also remains elevated despite declining meaningfully this year”.
  • They see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.7%, “reflecting flat-to-up labor force participation and a rise in household employment”.
  • AHE seen at 0.35% M/M (cons 0.3%) from 0.31% in August, “reflecting neutral calendar effects but a possible boost from autumn recruitment efforts”.
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  • Goldman forecast a 200k (cons 260k) increase in NFP in September, from August’s 315k “ reflecting the loss of the summer youth labor force”.
  • Big Data indicators were mixed in the month, but jobless claims remain low and the level of labor demand also remains elevated despite declining meaningfully this year”.
  • They see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.7%, “reflecting flat-to-up labor force participation and a rise in household employment”.
  • AHE seen at 0.35% M/M (cons 0.3%) from 0.31% in August, “reflecting neutral calendar effects but a possible boost from autumn recruitment efforts”.