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GS Continue To Expect Two Fed Cuts This Year

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Writing on today's payrolls report, Goldman Sachs note that “Job growth remained rapid in the healthcare industry but slowed sharply across leisure and government, raising the possibility that rehiring in those two sectors has mostly run its course.”
  • “The household survey was soft, with the unemployment rate increasing 0.1pp to 3.9%, driven by a 25k increase in household employment.”
  • “Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth based on the payroll and household surveys now stands at 189k, though we estimate that counting immigration fully would boost this by 20k.”
  • “Our Q1 wage tracker stands at +4.5% on a quarterly annualized basis and +4.3% on a year-over-year basis.”
  • “We continue to expect two rate cuts this year, in July and November.”
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