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GS Look For Zero AHE Growth In February

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman Sachs see NFP growth of 215k (mom sa, cons 200k) in February, “reflecting a 30-50k boost from a favorable swing in the weather”.
  • “We believe fewer end-of-year layoffs drove the 353k jump in January payrolls, and with that tailwind now behind us, we assume a return towards a more normal pace of job gains.”
  • “Big Data employment indicators also indicate solid or strong job growth, albeit well below that of January.”
  • They see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.7% (cons 3.7), “reflecting a moderate rise in household employment offset by a 0.1pp rebound in the labor force participation rate to 62.6%”.
  • However, AHE is seen at just 0.0% M/M (cons 0.2), “reflecting a 0.2pp drag on the monthly rate from the reversal of January’s weather-related distortions, as well as waning wage pressures and neutral calendar effects”. It would lower the Y/Y three tenths to 4.2%.
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