BRIEF: EU’s Hahn Moots Possibility Of Slowing NGEU Repayments

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, April 29

MNI BRIEF: China Pushes Back Against Japan's Semiconductor Threat

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Mon; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1066 Mon; -4.49% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS MON

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Greece, Belgium Auction on Tuesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Netherlands, UK, Germany Due Tuesday

Sequential SA Services CPI Estimated To Have Slowed Markedly

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

GS Look For Zero AHE Growth In February

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Homepagemarkets-real-timeGoldman Sachs Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Goldman Sachs see NFP growth of 215k (mom sa, cons 200k) in February, “reflecting a 30-50k boost from a favorable swing in the weather”.
  • “We believe fewer end-of-year layoffs drove the 353k jump in January payrolls, and with that tailwind now behind us, we assume a return towards a more normal pace of job gains.”
  • “Big Data employment indicators also indicate solid or strong job growth, albeit well below that of January.”
  • They see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.7% (cons 3.7), “reflecting a moderate rise in household employment offset by a 0.1pp rebound in the labor force participation rate to 62.6%”.
  • However, AHE is seen at just 0.0% M/M (cons 0.2), “reflecting a 0.2pp drag on the monthly rate from the reversal of January’s weather-related distortions, as well as waning wage pressures and neutral calendar effects”. It would lower the Y/Y three tenths to 4.2%.
146 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Goldman Sachs see NFP growth of 215k (mom sa, cons 200k) in February, “reflecting a 30-50k boost from a favorable swing in the weather”.
  • “We believe fewer end-of-year layoffs drove the 353k jump in January payrolls, and with that tailwind now behind us, we assume a return towards a more normal pace of job gains.”
  • “Big Data employment indicators also indicate solid or strong job growth, albeit well below that of January.”
  • They see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.7% (cons 3.7), “reflecting a moderate rise in household employment offset by a 0.1pp rebound in the labor force participation rate to 62.6%”.
  • However, AHE is seen at just 0.0% M/M (cons 0.2), “reflecting a 0.2pp drag on the monthly rate from the reversal of January’s weather-related distortions, as well as waning wage pressures and neutral calendar effects”. It would lower the Y/Y three tenths to 4.2%.