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GS: Lower Than Normal Year-End Layoffs To More Than Offset Weather Impact

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
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  • GS see nonfarm payrolls rising 250k (mom sa) in January, “reflecting below-normal end-of-year layoff rates—as indicated by our GS layoff tracker—that more than offset a roughly 50k drag from cold, snowy weather during the survey week.”
  • “We assume this weather headwinds weighs on the leisure and hospitality, other services, and construction categories. Big Data employment indicators were mixed in the month but are also broadly consistent with low layoff rates and a potentially large weather drag.”
  • The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, “reflecting a sharp rebound in household survey employment offset by a rebound in the labor force participation rate to 62.6%”.
  • AHE seen at 0.20% (mom sa) lowering the Y/Y rate by one tenth to 4.0%, “reflecting waning wage pressures and negative calendar effects (the latter worth roughly -5bps).”
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  • GS see nonfarm payrolls rising 250k (mom sa) in January, “reflecting below-normal end-of-year layoff rates—as indicated by our GS layoff tracker—that more than offset a roughly 50k drag from cold, snowy weather during the survey week.”
  • “We assume this weather headwinds weighs on the leisure and hospitality, other services, and construction categories. Big Data employment indicators were mixed in the month but are also broadly consistent with low layoff rates and a potentially large weather drag.”
  • The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, “reflecting a sharp rebound in household survey employment offset by a rebound in the labor force participation rate to 62.6%”.
  • AHE seen at 0.20% (mom sa) lowering the Y/Y rate by one tenth to 4.0%, “reflecting waning wage pressures and negative calendar effects (the latter worth roughly -5bps).”