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GS now expect BOE on hold in December

BOE
  • Goldman Sachs has updated its BOE call: "We had thought a 15bp hike in December was more likely than not, but this was a close call. We now think risk management considerations will dominate in next week’s MPC deliberations. As such, we expect the MPC members to vote to keep Bank Rate at 0.1% at the December meeting, but this remains a close call. We expect the MPC to signal that this is only a short delay to gather more information on Omicron, and indicate that a hike remains appropriate in coming months."
  • Now look for 15bp in February and continue to look for 25bp in May with further hikes every six months (Q4-22 and Q2-23).
  • GS "maintain our baseline view that the UK economy will hold up relatively well during the fourth wave, given high vaccine take-up and a successful booster programme... We are likely to gather more information on the impact of Omicron over the next week, especially with the potential releases of Pfizer and Moderna’s in-vitro studies. Given this, and the limited guidance from MPC members on the likely impact of Omicron, it is difficult to have strong conviction for the outcome of the upcoming MPC meeting."
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