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GS on CNB and CZK

CZECHIA
  • GS maintains its baseline forecast for rates to go higher and reach 8.0% this year, although yesterday’s MPC meeting outcome introduces material dovish risks to our forecast.
  • Striking a more balanced tone, both in the press release and in Governor Michl’s remarks in the press conference, the CNB added that the rate decision at the next meeting will focus on if "rates remain unchanged or increase".
  • On FX, there are ongoing depreciation pressures on the CZK and although the Koruna has been relatively stable in the past 2 months, this was primarily due to ongoing significant FX interventions, with the CNB intervening to the amount of EUR3.5bn in May, and higher frequency data suggesting that these interventions may have intensified in June and July.
  • The updated CNB staff forecasts show a significantly weaker Koruna this year.
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