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GS Retain View of 40% Inflation at Year-End

TURKEY
  • Goldman Sachs write that the pullback in headline inflation in Turkey was mostly due to base effects, where core inflation was driven by significant TRY depreciation. They estimate that core goods inflation rose by 4.6% in June, driven by FX weakness, after averaging 1.1% in February-May.
  • They see a significant part of the inflationary impact likely to take place next month, driving core inflation close to 50% Y/Y. They see the data suggesting that disinflation has not progressed meaningfully, likely because of substantial fiscal and monetary loosening that supported demand ahead of the elections.
  • They make no change to their 2023 headline inflation forecasts and continue to expect year-end inflation at +40% and forecast core inflation to average +49% in 2023. They continue to think that policy will be tightened mostly via quantity measures.
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