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GS See Softer Payrolls Growth But AHE Boosted By Calendar Effects

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman estimates 140k nonfarm payroll gains in June, with private payrolls up 115k, basing their below-consensus expectation on multiple factors.
  • “Big Data measures continue to indicate a below-normal pace of job creation during the spring hiring season, and our layoff tracker is also edging higher from low levels. We also assume a 50k drag from payback effects, because the longer-than-usual May payroll month likely pulled forward reported job growth into last month’s report.”
  • Goldman sees the unemployment rate steady at 4.0%, with higher household employment offsetting a 0.1pp increase in participation to 62.6%.
  • They forecast AHE of 0.35% M/M / 3.95% Y/Y, reflecting waning wage pressures but a 10bp monthly boost from calendar effects.
  • In a separate rate, they note that “The recent pattern of worker flows raises the risk that the labor market could soften a bit further. […] After remaining below the actual unemployment rate throughout much of the last two years, the flow-consistent rate is now pointing to an unemployment rate around 0.1-0.2pp above the current unemployment rate. The increase has been driven by both lower job-finding rates and higher job separation rates in the household survey.”
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