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GS Stronger Than Consensus For Payrolls, AHE and U/E

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman are well above consensus for nonfarm payrolls growth, forecasting 300k vs the 190k consensus.
  • They see this reflecting a variety of factors including elevated labor demand, the strong recent payroll trend, a 36k boost from the return of striking education workers, strength in Big Data employment indicators and favourable seasonal factors.
  • Further, jobless claims remain extremely low, and while corporate layoff announcements have increased in recent months, only 15% of California layoff filings since December had been implemented by the January payroll period.
  • They see AHE growth of 0.4% M/M (cons 0.3%), reflecting a 0.05pp boost from start-of-year wage hikes and neutral calendar effects.
  • Turning to the household survey, they see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.5% (cons 3.6%) reflecting higher household employment offset by flat-to-up labor force participation rate.
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