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GS: Used Cars To Drag On Core CPI But Airfares Bounce

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman Sachs expect core CPI inflation at 0.27% M/M in December, with a Y/Y rate of 3.87% (cons 3.8).
  • They see the forecast consistent with a 0.35% increase in core CPI services ex rent & OER, or 0.23% M/M for core PCE ahead of the usual post-CPI and PPI revisions.
  • Three key component-level trends: i) used car prices -1.1% and new car prices -0.2%, “reflecting rebounding promotional incentives and declining used car auction prices in December”. ii) airfares to increase by 5% this month, “reflecting an increase in our airline team’s real-time measure of airfares”. iii) “shelter inflation to slow somewhat relative to last month (we forecast both rent and OER to increase by 0.45%), as the gap between rents for new and continuing leases continues to close.”
  • Elsewhere, they also see apparel prices declining 0.3%, “reflecting elevated promotional activity during the holidays”, and car insurance inflation to decelerate to 0.6% “as premiums have nearly caught up to repair and replacement costs.”
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