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Guedes Says Fuel Prices Will Not Be Frozen, Jan IP Data Due

BRAZIL
  • The weaker dollar may pave the way for USDBRL to resume its depreciating trend as the Brazilian Real continues to be very well supported on dips. The bear trigger, residing at 4.9943, the Feb 23 low, will be the focus with scope seen for weakness towards 4.8934, the Jun 25, 2021 low. Brazil’s swap rates are also likely to join the risk-on mood and trim the recent upward swing in the DI curve.
  • Fuel prices will not be frozen, Brazil Economy Minister Paulo Guedes told reporters on Tuesday night.
    • Guedes met with Energy Minister Bento Albuquerque and Chief of Staff Ciro Nogueira to discuss measures to avoid a jump in fuel prices. The government is still counting on the approval in Congress of a bill that changes the way fuels are taxed to help mitigate fuel costs. (BBG)
  • Brazil is working on a decree to cut sea freight tax in an effort to reduce fuel and fertilizer import costs, Folha de S. Paulo newspaper reported, without citing how it obtained the information.
    • Measure would cost about 4b reais per year and doesn’t require budget compensation, according to Folha.
  • Data today:
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Jan. Industrial Production Y/y, est. -6.3%, prior -5.0%
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Jan. Industrial Production M/m, est. -1.9%, prior 2.9%
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