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Haddad, Congress Continue Payroll Tax Discussions, Retail Sales Data Due

BRAZIL
  • EM FX remains under pressure today and BRL may open weaker again, despite a more stable showing of the US dollar amidst further pushback from major central bank officials over the prospect of early rate cuts. Reports yesterday were that Haddad and Lower House Speaker Lira have already discussed the government's provisional payroll tax measure. Haddad will now meet with Lula today to discuss how the proposal will be forwarded and will then aim to discuss the matter again with Lira by Friday. The government is considering alternatives to its original proposal to win Senate support, including proposing a new bill or splitting the current one into separate parts.
  • Data wise, IGP-10 inflation for January rose by 0.42% m/m, vs. +0.46% expected and +0.62% prior. The annual rate rose to -3.2% y/y, from -3.6%. Retail sales volumes are expected to have risen by 0.1% m/m in November, with the y/y rate rebounding to 2.0% (1200GMT/0700ET).
    • Nov. Retail Sales YoY, est. 2.0%, prior 0.2%
    • Nov. Retail Sales MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.3%
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