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Haley Increases Profile But Trump Still Clear Favourite For GOP Nomination

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A new survey from Morning Consult has found that, “58% of potential Republican primary voters back Trump for the GOP’s 2024 nomination... unchanged from our surveys released on Monday before he skipped Wednesday’s matchup."

  • According to Morning Consult, the findings show that, "the Republican front-runner paid no price for skipping the debate even though most potential primary voters did want him to attend.”
  • The Morning Consult poll is one of several post-debate surveys to conclude that the debate had done little to significantly impact the race for the Republican nomination.
  • The Washington Post found that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley gained the most in awareness and favourability.
  • Politico reshuffled its primary tracker after the debate: “The biggest move: DeSantis drops down a tier, leaving Trump as the sole candidate in the “Frontrunners” category.”
  • Morning Consult notes: “Third-place candidate Vivek Ramaswamy... saw his backing increase among potential Republican primary voters from 10% to 11%, though that movement was well within the latest survey’s 3-point margin of error.”

Figure 1: Voting Intentions Pre- and Post-Debate (GOP Primary Voters)

Source: Morning Consult

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