Half Of Economists In "Obserwator Finansowy" Poll See Risk Of Premature NBP Cut

There has been some interest in a poll of more than 100 economists (including sell-side analysts and academics) taken by "Obserwator Finansowy" between Apr 28 - May 8 since the results were published last week.

• The poll showed that almost 50% of respondents now expect the NBP to lower interest rates this autumn (in September or 4Q2023).
• Meanwhile, only 36% of economists saw the scope for lowering interest rates by 25bp in September or 4Q2023.
• The difference between the two figures allows to gauge the proportion of economists who expect the NBP to cut rates prematurely.
• Parkiet/Rzeczpospolita reporter Grzegorz Siemionczyk notes that some economists seem to be expecting an "election rate cut."
• On the other hand, mBank research desk argue that more talk of such a rate cut will decrease the odds of its actual materialisation.
• Ludwik Kotecki, a hawkish dissenter in the MPC, said that it would be a "scandal" if the rate-setting panel discussed cutting rates because of the election.