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Harker Helps Take Edge Off Intraday Lift In Implied Rates

STIR
  • Philly Fed’s Harker (’23 voter) saying we don’t want to overdo it with Fed tightening and we’ll start cutting rates sometime probably next year helps take the edge off an intraday climb in Fed implied rates.
  • It broadly repeats the gist from his prepared remarks earlier today although the mention of cuts comes after similar comments from Williams yesterday, even if it is still consistent with the median dot from the June SEP pencilling in 5.5-5.75% for 4Q23 going to 4.5-4.75% for 4Q24.
  • Fed Funds implied rates see +3bp for Sep and a cumulative +8.5bp for a terminal of 5.415% in Nov. Despite cut expectations being trimmed from earlier levels, it’s still followed by 64bp of cuts from terminal to Jun’24 and 141bp of cuts from terminal to Dec’24 for similar levels to Friday’s post-payrolls close.
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