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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
An AP report claiming that Vice President Kamala Harris has won over enough Democratic National Convention delegates to effectively secure the party's presidential nomination, combined with news that the Harris For President campaign has seen a major influx of donations in the past 24hrs, has done little to move political betting markets regarding the outcome of November's election.
- AP has said it is not yet calling Harris the 'presumptive nominee' as delegates are free to vote for the candidate of their choosing at the 19-22 Aug DNC. However, AP reports that according to its unofficial survey Harris has gained the support of 2,668 delegates - well over the 1,976 majority threshold.
- The Harris For President campaign's securing ofUSD81mn in new funding from 880,000 donors over the past 24 hours is the largest in a day in presidential election history. Such
- In spite of these seemingly positive headlines for the Democrats, there has only been a small shift towards Harris in betting market implied probabilities for the election outcome.
- Data from electionbettingodds.com (which compiles Betfair, PredictIt, Polymarket, and Smarkets data) gives Harris a 35.8% implied probability of winning, up from 31.3% on 21 July in the immediate aftermath of President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race.
- Former President Donald Trump is the favourite to win the White House, with a 61.1% implied probability. This is down from 63.3% immediately before Biden's withdrawal and a recent peak of 68.5% on 16 July.
- There will be significant focus on the first opinion polls with fieldwork done after Biden's withdrawal and as Harris looks set to become the Democratic nominee.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Presidential Election Winner (by Candidate), %
Source: electionbettingodds.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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