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US
Morning Consult has published data showing that presumptive Democratic Party Presidential nominee Kamala Harris has extended her lead over former President Donald Trump in national polling.
- Morning Consult: "Harris leads Trump, 48% to 44%, a record-high margin in her favor in our tracking and the largest advantage for a Democratic presidential candidate over Trump in nearly a year.
- "Harris leads Trump by 5 points among independents (42% to 37%) and by 9 points among 18- to 34-year-olds (49% to 40%), which are both record-high margins for her among the key groups of swing voters. By comparison, President Joe Biden only bettered Harris’ showing among independents once in our daily tracking, back in January 2023, and in his final head-to-head tracking survey with Trump, he trailed the GOP candidate by 9 points among those youngest voters."
- Morning Consult's tracker shows a swing of six points towards Harris since the firm started polling the Harris-Trump horse-race on July 21.
- Morning Consult notes separately that half of voters say former President Donald Trump is “too old,” [...] By contrast, only 12% say the same of Harris, compared with 70% who said the same of Biden." - a notable paradigm shift in a key metanarrative of the presidential race.
Figure 1: US Presidential Election Weekly Tracker
Source: Morning Consult
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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