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Harris Fav For FG Leadership; Eurogroup Pres. Donohoe Possible Rival

IRELAND

Nominations for candidates to succeed Leo Varadkar as leader of the centre-right Fine Gael (FG)party and therefore as Irish Taoiseach (PM) have opened, although there are as-yet no official declarations from any potential candidates. Nevertheless, Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris is viewed as the clear favourite. Harris (37), a TD since 2011, has already gained the public backing of seven senators, four TDs, two ministers and two MEPs. The Fine Gael parliamentary party is made up of 55 individuals (34 TDs, 16 Senators and 5 MEPs), and as such Harris - should he declare - will have crossed the 10% threshold to get onto the ballot.

  • FG Deputy Leader Simon Coveney, who challenged the outgoing Varadkar for the party leadership in 2017, has ruled himself out, as has Justice Minister Helen McEntee. This leaves Eurogroup President and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe (49) and Minister for Social Protection Heather Humphreys (60) as the two other potential candidates who have yet to state their intentions.
  • It should be noted that while a change in leadership at the top of the Irish gov't will likely engender some shift in the governing style of the administraiton, it is not expected to lead to significant policy changes. The leaders of both other parties in the governing coalition - centrist Fianna Fail and environmentalist Greens - have pledged to work with the new FG leader meaning a snap election is off the cards.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Ireland Thinks, Red C, Ipsos, B&A, MNI

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