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Harris Leads Trump In Bellwether PA Counties, Suffolk/USA Today

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A new Suffolk University/USA Today poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leading former President Donald Trump 49%-46% in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania and “two of the state's key bellwether counties,” Erie County and Northampton County, which voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 by narrow margins.

  • The poll found, “a wide gender gap that is benefiting the vice president. Harris leads female voters in Pennsylvania 56%-39%, while Trump tops male voters by a slimmer 53%-41%, according to the poll. Harris edged Trump among Pennsylvania's independent voters 43%-38%.”
  • The New York Times polling average shows Harris with a razor-thin one-percentage-point lead in the state, but there have been few high-quality surveys of the key battleground states since the first debate between Harris and Trump.
  • The Times/Siena College survey, arguably the most market-moving of the major polls, is expected to be released imminently – providing a clearer picture of the state of the race in the key states.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election, Pennsylvania Polling Average

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A new Suffolk University/USA Today poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly leading former President Donald Trump 49%-46% in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania and “two of the state's key bellwether counties,” Erie County and Northampton County, which voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 by narrow margins.

  • The poll found, “a wide gender gap that is benefiting the vice president. Harris leads female voters in Pennsylvania 56%-39%, while Trump tops male voters by a slimmer 53%-41%, according to the poll. Harris edged Trump among Pennsylvania's independent voters 43%-38%.”
  • The New York Times polling average shows Harris with a razor-thin one-percentage-point lead in the state, but there have been few high-quality surveys of the key battleground states since the first debate between Harris and Trump.
  • The Times/Siena College survey, arguably the most market-moving of the major polls, is expected to be released imminently – providing a clearer picture of the state of the race in the key states.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election, Pennsylvania Polling Average

Keep reading...Show less