Harris Nearing Parity w/Trump In Betting Markets

Political betting markets show Vice President and likely Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris within touching distance of Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump. The latest numbers from electionbettingodds.com, which compiles Betfair, Smarkets, Polymarket and PredictIt data, show Trump with a 51.7% implied probability of winning the presidency, compared to 45.9% for Harris. Just over a week ago, on 24 July, Trump's odds stood at 60.2% to Harris' 36.3%.

• The tightening betting market gap comes amid opinion polling showing Harris performing much better against Trump than incumbent President Joe Biden. Five Thirty Eight reports that "...our average of national polls says Harris has the support of 45.0 percent of voters, while Trump garners 43.5 percent." 538 notes that this is within the average's 'uncertainty interval' (effectively a margin of error), making it a statistical dead heat.
• 538 also notes, "...it's an open question whether [Harris' upward momentum] will last. As the new nominee, Harris may be enjoying a honeymoon period, and an amped-up Democratic base may be more likely to respond to surveys than Republicans — a phenomenon known as differential partisan nonresponse. It's also possible that the initial boost of enthusiasm she has received will fade over time."

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of US Presidential Election Winner, %