WHITE HOUSE
Vice President Kamala Harris has once again overtaken President Joe Biden in political betting markets with regards to who will be the Democratic party's presidential nominee come November. Earlier in the morning we noted the impact of Biden's latest verbal gaffes on the broader presidential betting markets (see 'US: Presidential Odds Volatile As Biden Gives Press Conference', 0248BST). The latest figures from Election Betting Odds, which collates data from Predictit, Polymarket, Smarkets and Betfair, gives Harris a 43.3% implied probability of becoming the Democratic party nominee, up 7.3% to 24 hours ago.
- Biden is afforded a 37.1% implied probability of taking part in the presidential election, down 6.5% in a day. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) has taken over third place, with a 5.0% implied probability, coming in just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) on 4.9%.
Chart 1. Political Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Democratic Nomination, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com
- Immediately following the NATO-closing presser, three more Democratic reps. - Jim Himes (CT), Scott Peters (CA) and Eric Sorensen (IL) - calledon Biden to withdraw from the race. This raises the number of congressmen calling for Biden to quit to 16 as well as one Dem senator, Vermont's Peter Welch.
- This number would appear to be smaller than the 'half dozen' Dems willing to go public with calls for Biden to resign speculated upon by Politico on 11 July (see 'US: House Dems "Prepare To Break With Biden If he Tanks NATO Presser", Politico', 1813BST 11 Jul).
Chart 2. Democratic Party Representatives and Senators Calling for Biden's Withdrawal
Source: WSJ
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