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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
A new 2024 presidential election forecast published by RacetotheWHshows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 53.9%-45.7% as the Democratic National Convention gets underway in Chicago, Illinois.
- Historical data suggests Harris is likely to get a moderate polling bump during the convention. However, it remains to be seen if that polling boost has already been priced in amid a momentum surge that followed Harris' ascent to the top of the ticket. Should Harris receive a boost, she might extend her lead over Trump in national polling by around 2-3%, but any polling boost is likely to recede over the coming weeks.
- Nate Silver's election forecast shows a similar 53.5%-45.9% lead for Harris, with the gap narrowing slightly over the past week. The Economist's election forecast shows a deadheat.
Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast
Source: RacetotheWH
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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